What are the rules for a knife trade-up?
Valve added knife trade-ups on 22 October 2025. The release notes give two rules:
- 5 regular Covert items give one regular knife or one regular pair of gloves.
- 5 StatTrak Covert items give one StatTrak knife.
In both cases the result comes "from a collection of one of the items provided". In practice, that means the rare pool of the case your Covert came from. Five Coverts from the Kilowatt Case can only give a Kukri Knife, because that is the Kilowatt Case's whole rare pool.
Two more rules matter when you buy inputs. Steam's Trade Protected Items page says items received in a trade cannot be consumed for 7 days. And Steam's own Trade Up Contracts FAQ still said Covert weapons cannot be used when we checked it in October 2026. The newer release note is what the game follows, so do not let the old FAQ text confuse you.
This guide is about cost. The full mechanics, including how the output float is set, are in how trade-up contracts work.
How did we price each recipe?
We built one recipe per case from the CSRated price snapshot of 2 October 2026 (five cash markets plus the Steam Community Market).
- Inputs. For each case, we found the cheapest normal Covert from that case in each wear, using the same agreement rule as our ranked lists: at least 2 cash markets, 3 or more listings, and a lowest listing no more than 3 times the Steam price or the 30-day sale median. Then we took the wear that made the cheapest set of five.
- Input float. We assumed each input sits in the middle of its wear band. Real listings vary, so treat this as a typical case, not your case.
- Output float. We mapped that float onto each knife or glove's own float range, the method our trade-up calculator uses. Valve has not published the formula.
- Outcome prices. Each knife or glove was priced at the lowest agreed listing for the wear it would land in. Plain (vanilla) knives have no wear. Doppler finishes count as one finish, priced at the lowest listing across phases.
- Odds. Valve has not published how it picks inside a pool, so each finish gets an equal chance, as in the calculator.
- Return. The average outcome price divided by the cost of the five inputs. No fees are included.
What are the cheapest knife and glove trade-ups?
These are the 14 cheapest recipes, one per case, sorted by the cost of five inputs.
| Case | Pool | Input (x5) | Cost of 5 | Average outcome | Return | Outcomes worth more than the cost |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilowatt Case | Kukri Knife | AWP | Chrome Cannon (BS), $21.63 | $108.15 | $61.94 | 57% | 1 of 13 |
| Revolution Case | Gloves | AK-47 | Head Shot (BS), $23.18 | $115.90 | $73.29 | 63% | 4 of 24 |
| Clutch Case | Gloves | MP7 | Bloodsport (FT), $23.68 | $118.40 | $93.17 | 79% | 7 of 24 |
| Recoil Case | Gloves | AWP | Chromatic Aberration (BS), $23.76 | $118.80 | $87.95 | 74% | 4 of 24 |
| CS20 Case | Classic Knife | FAMAS | Commemoration (FT), $24.63 | $123.15 | $105.65 | 86% | 4 of 13 |
| Gallery Case | Kukri Knife | Glock-18 | Gold Toof (FT), $24.95 | $124.75 | $63.39 | 51% | 1 of 13 |
| Snakebite Case | Gloves | M4A4 | In Living Color (BS), $25.33 | $126.65 | $87.95 | 69% | 3 of 24 |
| Operation Wildfire Case | Bowie Knife | M4A4 | The Battlestar (FT), $26.01 | $130.05 | $81.44 | 63% | 2 of 13 |
| Operation Broken Fang Case | Gloves | Glock-18 | Neo-Noir (BS), $26.15 | $130.75 | $87.95 | 67% | 3 of 24 |
| Falchion Case | Falchion Knife | AK-47 | Aquamarine Revenge (WW), $26.29 | $131.45 | $95.09 | 72% | 3 of 13 |
| Fracture Case | 4 knife types | AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (BS), $28.24 | $141.20 | $107.33 | 76% | 9 of 52 |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | Huntsman Knife | M4A4 | Desert-Strike (FT), $29.55 | $147.75 | $97.96 | 66% | 2 of 13 |
| Fever Case | 4 knife types | FAMAS | Bad Trip (WW), $30.72 | $153.60 | $140.44 | 91% | 10 of 28 |
| Danger Zone Case | 4 knife types | AK-47 | Asiimov (FT), $34.11 | $170.55 | $159.13 | 93% | 19 of 52 |
Source: CSRated price snapshot, 2 October 2026. BS is Battle-Scarred, FT Field-Tested, WW Well-Worn. Prices are lowest listings with no fees.
The floor for a knife trade-up was about $108, and every cheap recipe returned less than it cost on average. The returns ranged from 51% to 93%. The cheapest recipe was not the best value: the Danger Zone Case cost $62 more than the Kilowatt Case but gave back 93% instead of 57%.
Notice that the Recoil, Snakebite and Broken Fang rows share the same $87.95 average. Those three cases share one glove pool in our data, so the only difference between them is the input price. If you want that pool, the Recoil Case Covert was the cheapest way in.
Worked example: the Kilowatt Case Kukri trade-up
Here is the cheapest recipe step by step.
Inputs. Five AWP | Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred). The lowest agreed listing was $21.63, so five cost $108.15. That price was on one market with 7 listings. The other four cash markets started at $23.84 to $26.62, so a realistic set could cost $110 to $120.
Float. We assumed a float of 0.725 for each input, the middle of Battle-Scarred. The AWP | Chrome Cannon has a 0 to 1 range, so that is 72.5% of the way along it.
Outcomes. The Kilowatt Case's rare pool is 13 Kukri Knife finishes. Each knife's float lands 72.5% of the way along its own range:
| Kukri Knife finish | Output wear | Lowest listing |
|---|---|---|
| Fade (range 0 to 0.08) | Factory New | $141.72 |
| Slaughter (range 0.01 to 0.26) | Field-Tested | $106.39 |
| Vanilla (no wear) | None | $79.59 |
| Case Hardened | Battle-Scarred | $73.90 |
| Blue Steel | Battle-Scarred | $65.03 |
| Crimson Web | Battle-Scarred | $56.83 |
| Stained | Battle-Scarred | $47.41 |
| Urban Masked | Battle-Scarred | $42.37 |
| Night Stripe | Battle-Scarred | $41.66 |
| Safari Mesh | Battle-Scarred | $39.50 |
| Scorched | Battle-Scarred | $39.35 |
| Forest DDPAT | Battle-Scarred | $37.02 |
| Boreal Forest | Battle-Scarred | $34.48 |
Source: CSRated price snapshot, 2 October 2026.
The result. The average of the 13 is $61.94, which is 57% of $108.15. Only the Fade was worth more than the inputs, a 1 in 13 chance (about 7.7%) if each finish is equally likely. Seven of the 13 outcomes were worth less than half the inputs.
Two lessons hide in this table. First, Fade style finishes have such a narrow float range that they come out Factory New even from Battle-Scarred inputs. Second, most of the pool lands in Battle-Scarred, and Battle-Scarred knives are the cheapest knives there are. Our cheapest knives list shows where these sit against every other knife.
Which knife trade-ups come closest to breaking even?
Among the cheap recipes, the Danger Zone Case (93%), the Fever Case (91%) and the CS20 Case (86%) gave back the most on average. All three still lost money on average before fees.
We also checked every case, not only the cheap ones. Four recipes showed an average above their cost on listing prices:
| Recipe | Cost of 5 | Average outcome | Return |
|---|---|---|---|
| eSports 2014 Summer Case, M4A4 | Bullet Rain (MW) | $278.45 | $305.64 | 110% |
| Operation Breakout Weapon Case, StatTrak M4A1-S | Cyrex (FT) | $762.95 | $788.59 | 103% |
| eSports 2014 Summer Case, StatTrak M4A4 | Bullet Rain (FT) | $337.25 | $342.05 | 101% |
| Operation Phoenix Weapon Case, StatTrak AUG | Chameleon (FT) | $338.40 | $342.05 | 101% |
Source: CSRated price snapshot, 2 October 2026.
We do not read any of these as a profit. The margins are 1% to 10%, and a selling fee of the same size wipes them out. If you sell the knife on the Steam Market, Steam's Community Market FAQ lists a 5% Steam fee and a 10% Counter-Strike 2 fee, and the money stays in your Steam Wallet. Third-party markets charge their own fees; our fees page compares them.
The averages also lean on a few rare results. The eSports 2014 Summer pool has 65 finishes across five knife types, and a Karambit | Fade in Factory New at $1,782.56 alone adds about $27 to the average. In the same recipe, 41 of the 65 outcomes were worth less than the five inputs.
Are glove trade-ups cheaper than knife trade-ups?
They cost about the same to enter, from about $116 in our snapshot, but the spread of results is wider. Gloves from the Clutch Case (five MP7 | Bloodsport, Field-Tested, $118.40) ranged from Hydra Gloves | Mangrove at $22.74 to Sport Gloves | Vice at $380.10, both in Field-Tested.
That means the cheapest glove you can pull is worth less than one of the five Coverts you put in. The Clutch recipe returned 79% on average, with 7 of 24 outcomes worth more than the cost. Gloves only come from normal contracts: StatTrak gloves do not exist, so StatTrak Coverts from the seven glove-only cases (Revolution, Recoil, Snakebite, Clutch, Operation Broken Fang, Operation Hydra and the Glove Case) cannot be used for anything in a Covert contract.
What do StatTrak knife trade-ups cost?
Five StatTrak Coverts give a StatTrak knife. The cheapest StatTrak recipes in our snapshot:
| Case | Input (x5) | Cost of 5 | Average outcome | Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kilowatt Case | StatTrak AWP | Chrome Cannon (WW), $25.00 | $125.00 | $77.45 | 62% |
| Huntsman Weapon Case | StatTrak M4A4 | Desert-Strike (FT), $29.99 | $149.95 | $141.02 | 94% |
| Fracture Case | StatTrak AK-47 | Legion of Anubis (BS), $30.66 | $153.30 | $134.89 | 88% |
| CS20 Case | StatTrak FAMAS | Commemoration (FT), $33.88 | $169.40 | $142.24 | 84% |
Source: CSRated price snapshot, 2 October 2026.
StatTrak recipes cost a little more and, in this snapshot, often returned a little more, because StatTrak knives carry a premium. The cheapest StatTrak Covert of all, the StatTrak MP7 | Bloodsport at $16.01, is from the Clutch Case, which only has gloves. It cannot make a StatTrak knife.
How do you plan a knife trade-up without nasty surprises?
- Pick the pool first. Decide which case's knives or gloves you want, then find the cheapest Covert from that case. Each case page lists its rare pool and Coverts.
- Price five, not one. Look at the next few listings on every market. The lowest listing is one item.
- Check floats. Read each input's float with the float checker. The float cap calculator shows each knife's range, so you can see where your average lands.
- Run the exact set in the trade-up calculator. It shows every outcome, its chance and its price for your floats.
- Wait out trade protection. Inputs bought by trade cannot be used for 7 days, per Steam Support.
- Read the outcome list in game before you confirm. If a pool you did not expect appears, one input is not what you thought. The inputs are destroyed when you confirm.
Our trade-up EV guide walks through the maths, including how to take fees off the outcome side. For output float tricks, see float capping explained.
Common mistakes with cheap knife trade-ups
- Treating the cheapest recipe as the best. The $108 Kilowatt recipe returned 57%. A recipe $60 dearer returned 93%.
- Using Coverts with no pool. The cheapest Covert overall, the AK-47 | Aphrodite, is a Limited Edition item with no knife pool. Our cheapest Covert skins list marks the pool for each skin.
- Buying StatTrak Coverts from glove cases. They cannot make a StatTrak knife.
- Ignoring the float. Battle-Scarred inputs mostly give Battle-Scarred knives, the cheapest version of each finish.
- Pricing outcomes at their listing price. You sell for less than the lowest listing, after a fee.
- Doing one contract and calling it luck. One contract is one roll. The averages above only show up over many.
A knife trade-up is a bet with a known, usually negative, average. If you do one, spend only what you are happy to lose, and see our responsible gaming page if trade-ups or case openings stop feeling like a hobby.