What are the official CS2 case odds?
Every key-opened CS2 weapon case uses the same five chances, one per rarity. Valve does not post them on Steam. They come from Perfect World's disclosure page, the official CS site in China, where loot box odds must be published.
| Rarity | Color | Chance per case | About 1 in | Per 1,000 cases |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | Blue | 79.923% | 1.25 | 799 |
| Restricted | Purple | 15.985% | 6 | 160 |
| Classified | Pink | 3.197% | 31 | 32 |
| Covert | Red | 0.639% | 156 | 6.4 |
| Knife or gloves | Gold | 0.256% | 391 | 2.6 |
The page states them as rules rather than raw numbers: each tier from Covert down is 1 to 5 against the tier below it, and a rare special item (a knife or gloves) is 2 to 5 against a Covert. The percentages follow from those ratios and add up to 100%.
If you only need the headline: one knife or gloves per 391 cases on average, and one Covert per 156. Our drop rates page shows the same tiers rounded to two decimals, which is why it says 1 in 385.
Where do these odds come from, and are they still current?
Perfect World first posted the disclosure on 11 September 2017. The page has been kept up to date since: the version we read in October 2026 also lists Armory items, 2025 sticker sets, and both CS2 Terminals. It ends by saying the current odds all follow these rules and that changes will be announced.
Two lines on the page settle long-running arguments:
- Same tier, same chance. It says different items of the same rarity have the same chance. So in a case with 2 Coverts, each Covert is exactly half of 0.639%.
- StatTrak is 1 in 10. If an item can come as StatTrak, the StatTrak roll is 1:10.
There is no published float or wear distribution. Your float is rolled after the item is chosen, and our float values guide explains what each range means.
What are the odds of one specific skin?
Divide the tier's chance by the number of items in that tier. Most modern cases have 7 Mil-Spec, 5 Restricted, 3 Classified and 2 Covert skins. That layout covers 24 of the 42 cases in our dataset (CSRated case data, October 2026).
| One exact skin in a 7/5/3/2 case | Chance per case | About 1 in | StatTrak version, about 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| One Mil-Spec | 11.42% | 9 | 88 |
| One Restricted | 3.20% | 31 | 313 |
| One Classified | 1.07% | 94 | 938 |
| One Covert | 0.32% | 313 | 3,130 |
So if you want a specific Covert, say the AK-47 | Inheritance from the Kilowatt Case, you need about 313 openings on average to see it once, and about 3,130 for the StatTrak version. Older cases with fewer skins per tier give better odds per item. The original CS:GO Weapon Case has a single Covert, so that one skin gets the full 0.639%.
Every case page on CSRated, for example the Fever Case, lists its items by rarity, so you can do this sum for any case.
What are the knife odds in each case?
The gold tier is where cases differ most. The chance of any knife or gloves is always 0.256%. But the pool behind it ranges from 13 items to 65, so the chance of one exact knife changes five-fold.
| Gold pool size | Example cases | One exact knife or glove, about 1 in | StatTrak knife, about 1 in |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Kilowatt, Gallery, CS20, Operation Breakout, Shadow, Falchion | 5,100 | 51,000 |
| 24 (all gloves) | Glove, Operation Hydra, Clutch, Revolution, Recoil, Snakebite | 9,400 | None, gloves are never StatTrak |
| 28 to 30 | Fever, Prisma, Dreams & Nightmares, Gamma, Chroma, Spectrum | 10,900 to 11,700 | 109,000 to 117,000 |
| 52 | Fracture, Horizon, Danger Zone, Shattered Web | 20,300 | 203,000 |
| 65 | CS:GO Weapon Case, Operation Bravo, Revolver, Phoenix | 25,400 | 254,000 |
Source: CSRated case data and the Perfect World odds, October 2026. Pool sizes count each knife finish once.
Two notes on this table. Pools with Doppler or Gamma Doppler knives split one more time by phase, and phase odds are not published; our Doppler phases guide covers what is known. And every 24-item pool in the table is a glove pool, which is why its StatTrak column is empty.
What are the StatTrak odds?
1 in 10, on any item that can come as StatTrak, per the same disclosure. It is a separate roll after the item is picked. That makes the maths easy:
- Any StatTrak Covert: 0.639% times 10% = 0.064%, about 1 in 1,565 cases.
- Any StatTrak knife: 0.256% times 10% = 0.026%, about 1 in 3,906 cases, in cases that drop knives.
- Gloves: never StatTrak.
Whether StatTrak is worth paying extra for on the market is a different question, with different numbers, because StatTrak prices vary a lot by skin.
How many cases does it take to get a knife?
There is no number that guarantees one. Each case is a fresh 0.256% roll. What you can work out is the chance of at least one knife or gloves across a run:
| Cases opened | Chance of at least one knife or gloves | Key cost alone at $2.49 |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 22.6% | $249 |
| 270 | 50% | $672 |
| 391 | 63.3% | $974 |
| 898 | 90% | $2,236 |
| 1,169 | 95% | $2,911 |
Key price from Skinflow, which lists it at $2.49 and fixed by Valve. Plug in your own case price and number of openings with our case odds calculator.
Notice the 391 row. Opening the "average" number of cases still leaves about a 37% chance of no knife at all. Averages describe many people, not one person's run.
What is each rarity worth in real prices?
Odds alone do not tell you much. What matters is how the odds meet prices. We combined the published odds with our price data for all 42 cases, using the method of our Case EV tool: each skin is valued at its lowest cash listing, averaged across wears, with the StatTrak price weighted at 10%.
| Rarity | Average item value in a typical case | Share of a typical case's value |
|---|---|---|
| Mil-Spec | $0.83 | 22% |
| Restricted | $3.36 | 18% |
| Classified | $19.54 | 16% |
| Covert | $102.75 | 18% |
| Knife or gloves | $305.03 | 24% |
Source: CSRated price snapshot, 2 October 2026. "Typical" is the median across 42 cases.
The gold tier shows up only 2.6 times in 1,000 openings, yet it carries about a quarter of a typical case's value. The other three quarters come from Mil-Specs and Restricteds that are worth less than the key. That is why most openings lose money and the average leans on a rare hit.
Worked example: the Kilowatt Case. The Kilowatt Case listed at $0.10, so one opening with a $2.49 key costs about $2.59. At 0.256%, you would spend about $1,012 on average per knife. The knives in its pool are Kukri Knives, which averaged about $88 across wears and finishes in the same snapshot. The rare hit people open cases for is worth less than a tenth of what it costs, on average, to find.
Our best CS2 case to open guide ranks all 42 cases by this return. Its short answer is that no case pays back on average.
Do souvenir packages, capsules and Terminals use the same odds?
No. The same Perfect World page lists separate odds for each container type. A few that CS2 players run into:
| Container | Tiers and chances |
|---|---|
| Key-opened weapon case, and the Dead Hand Terminal | Mil-Spec 79.923%, Restricted 15.985%, Classified 3.197%, Covert 0.639%, rare special 0.256% |
| Genesis Terminal | Mil-Spec 80.128%, Restricted 16.026%, Classified 3.205%, Covert 0.641% |
| Souvenir package from Consumer up to Covert | Consumer 79.872%, Industrial 15.974%, Mil-Spec 3.328%, Restricted 0.666%, Classified 0.133%, Covert 0.027% |
| Sticker capsule from High Grade up to Extraordinary | High Grade 80.128%, Remarkable 16.026%, Exotic 3.205%, Extraordinary 0.641% |
Terminals work differently from cases, because they offer you items to buy instead of handing you one. Our CS2 Terminals guide explains how the odds fit in.
Do case-opening websites use these odds?
No. These numbers apply to real CS2 cases opened in the game with a key. Case-opening websites build their own "cases", choose their own items and set their own odds, and those odds are only as honest as the site. Our house edge guide shows how to read a site's odds table and see how much it keeps.
Common mistakes when reading case odds
- Treating 1 in 391 as a promise. It is an average over many people. You can open 1,000 cases and get nothing gold.
- Thinking you are "due". The case has no memory. The 400th case has the same 0.256% as the first.
- Using tier odds for one item. "0.64% for a Covert" is any Covert. One exact Covert in a modern case is half that.
- Forgetting the key. The case may cost 10 cents, but each opening costs at least the $2.49 key.
- Valuing by Steam prices. Steam Market sales pay you in wallet funds after Steam's fees, per the Community Market FAQ, so a skin's Steam price overstates what you could cash out.
If you want to feel these odds without paying for them, open a few hundred cases in the free case simulator. It uses the same numbers. If you do open real cases, set a limit before you start and stick to it; our responsible gaming page has practical tools.